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January 8, 2009 THURSDAY
we do not burn
THE FLAG OF ISRAEL
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THERE 'A Nazi government
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A 2009 FOR MOSCOW
BEAR PROBLEMS
to energy issues
AND MANAGEMENT POWER
Carlo Benedetti
The order began in the operations center of the "Gazprom" - in the heart of Moscow - and it was agreed with the government of Putin. And thus blocking the flow of gas to Ukraine is no longer a single threat. It is now operational and means that the "reduction" will amount to 65 million and 300 thousand cubic meters, ie the quantity of gas that Ukraine has taken from European consumers, loyal to Russia. But to suffer for this decision will not, of course, only because the Kiev supplied Russian gas pipelines radiate, Ukraine, to other nations. In Italy there is also considerable risk that depends on Russian gas for 30% of its imports and stocks for which at least a month, says Minister Scajola .
is unleashed so that the geopolitical and geo-economic jargon is called the "gas war" [1] . On the one hand there is a power producer (Russia) and the other the nation that offers the "transit" getting even a part of the product. But the question is the price tag that is not in the agreement. Why Moscow - the capital of a new capitalism - wants to raise its prices at the level of so called global market. And Ukraine - who also aspires to be a capitalist at all costs - do not want to admit to having to deal with the globalized world. And so the vice-chairman of "Gazprom" has easy game saying that Kiev is "wrongly associated with the West and democratic values" and is "behaving in a barbaric manner."
And now this power struggle - in Europe, especially - the fear of the Russian Bear comeback. Not more than missiles, but that the flow of gas which may, as appropriate, be reduced or increased. But what is often forgotten about is that the Russians are dependent on revenue from the sale of gas to European countries much more than the West depend on their supplies.
However both Russia still remains a crucial actor in the global energy game. And we know that with regard to Saudi Arabia is one of the two largest oil producers in the world. That has immense reserves of natural gas and is greatly benefited by the high current prices of energy. Not only that, but thanks to the proceeds from the export of oil and gas, has succeeded to set up a large reserve of foreign currency, the world's third largest after Japan and China. And again, in recent years has managed to bring to the industry all the critical areas of the national economy and energy, feeding from 2000 to 7% of annual economic growth. It has thus become a key country in the global arena.
explodes now, in this context, the crisis in Kiev. The Russians are holding firm and Putin - as the country celebrates Orthodox Christmas - looks at the TV networks unified explaining the situation. He defends the trade policy and, therefore, defends his jewel, that "Gazprom" which is the powerful tentacles of the economic system of the Kremlin.
But everyone knows that Russia is not only a problem of gas. Why war with Ukraine and lasts a long time precisely because of the collapse of the USSR, with the consequent partition of the family jewels: the naval bases of the Black Sea fleet, nuclear warheads, the sovereignty over the Crimean peninsula The fate of Russian citizens and Russian origin who are living in a foreign country now ...
So Putin, via television, has good game talking about the emergence of a "thankless and thief." The Russians follow him because they feel offended by what is happening. Even if the crisis does not seem to worry too much: define the whole as a mere consequence of the global crisis. E '" temporary phenomenon," notes the newspaper Kommersant . Do not exclude, however, affect the real economy, as in the productive sectors, building and construction, with the inevitable devaluation of the real estate and various other business activities.
The Russian central bank at the same time, provides a deterioration in external conditions economic development of the country for the next biennium 2009-2011, as the cause of the global economic slowdown [2] . And the Kremlin, meanwhile, believes that the issue of relations with Kiev is not only financially, but has a face that reveals the social and geopolitical existence of a deep division between the elite that governs the Ukraine and the common people, Russian or Ukrainian. And the more you go along you realize that the Kremlin is waging a battle that must be won at all costs. While we must tighten the taps.
Meanwhile from Brussels, the EU urges the contestants to "honor their commitments" on transit and supplies. Even the outgoing U.S. administration of President George Bush hopes guarantees for the stability of energy markets, highlighting the possible "humanitarian consequences." But the reaction of Kiev to be currently very far from the fears of the West to the gas crisis. Ukrainian President Viktor Iushenko declares that the European customers of Gazprom and the Ukrainian pipeline network will not suffer from the consequences of confrontation in place. It is convinced that 'within days' you will find an agreement. Meanwhile, a delegation is visiting Kiev in the capitals of EU countries for talks aimed at "finding a solution to the problem of Russian gas supplies to Europe."
But Russia is increasingly suspicious. And the spokesman of "Gazprom" Sergei Kuprianov , (a character who appears on television every time he announces a hazard ...) attributes the flop negotiating a clear desire to blow up Ukrainian agreements to buy time . Then he points out that the repayment of debts against billionaires in Ukraine Moscow is a condition to which "Gazprom" has placed their exports to Ukraine in 2009.
On the stage, followed by the Ukraine appears Iushenko , who said that Kiev has repaid the debt: $ 1.5 billion in arrears bill in November and December. But "Gazprom" does not confirm payment of bills, announcing that this will be cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in the absence of a new agreement on gas.
And here now the deputy chairman of Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev that At a press conference in Prague, accused Ukraine of "stealing" 35 million cubic meters of gas per day and intimate to pay them, along with the arrears. He says: "If we calculate the total gas sample dall'oleodotto for export and that taken in the underground storage of gas taken from the total Naftogaz Ukrainians exceeds 35 million cubic meters a day."
spread so the war of numbers and dollars. With the Ukrainians who speak Russian blackmail characterized by requests for increases that could cause a "humanitarian catastrophe" in the Ukraine. All this, according to Naftogaz , violate previous agreements between the parties.
So far the gas war. But another war in Moscow announced that, starting from the general malaise of the economy efficiency (at least for international relations), could lead to a tightening of its socio-economic structures and the inertia of economic policy.
And here gets an authoritative voice, that of the Kremlin economic advisor Arkady Dvorkovich . And 'he stating that: "Russia will post a budget deficit for 2009" and that, consequently, the government does not exclude recourse to foreign loans. It comes, therefore, the turning point for the first policy that Putin and Medvedev also wanted to present as linear and without hindrance. This means that the coexistence of the past (a reformist president and a conservative Parliament) is outdated and that the long-awaited globalization (advocated by the "democratic" in the past) now that its laws within Russia. With the staggering financial system that enters into the new year.
Here, then, that the population is experiencing the drama of the recession at all levels, while the banks and corporations who showed off their wealth and power begin to lose shots. In this context also that giant "Gazprom" reveals some cracks in its overall structure (it has since reduced its capital by more than 100 million dollars in its budget statement) while the official data of the beginning of this year reveal that the actions of many Russian companies have fallen by about 70% going to affect the wealth of 25 major Russian billionaires for more than $ 230 billion.
You can not, of course, drawing a comparison with the reality of the country at the population level, but also clear that the poor and the rich, the Kremlin chose to side with those who maneuver the economic power of pouring money to allow the oligarchs to keep moving in the business world.
But not all. The horizon shows a lot of gray clouds Russian relations as a top. It happens, in fact, that President Medvedev, during a television interview, betrays the existence of a dissent underground Putin: " The ultimate responsibility for what happens in the country and the important decisions - says - weighs on my shoulders and I could not only share this responsibility with anyone " [3] . Even with Putin, then. This could mean that we are facing a change of gear than usual Medvedev that when talking about decisions important, never fails to point out that it took having consulted with Putin.
we return to the surface Kremlinology who see this development in the sign of something that has changed. "There is a growing concern on both sides, particularly that of Putin" says Dmitri Simes , head of the Nixon Center Washington. "No one - more - reported that Putin's statements, but many of those close to him are apprehensive about this new attitude" of Medvedev. Simes also underlines the fact that the head of the Kremlin recently has repeatedly called ministers of the Putin government to provide guidance on economic issues, "which are normally regarded as the prerogative of the Prime Minister." And even in recent statements, the President has seemed less "respectful" than its predecessor. It seems, then, that Medvedev is probably looking for a space. And on authoritative account comes a story like that of Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Centre which notes: "I do not think the President is happy to still be seen as the junior partner of Putin." But Lilia Shevtsova , an analyst of the same Carnegie Centre, is more cautious: "They both - he explains - which include the power system depends on whether they remain together." And so on the front of the gas are two great leaders of Russia, for now, an agreement. But it is clear that this is a mindset as temporary the critical issues in relation to two will soon be home to roost.
[1] In this context it should be noted that: "Despite their increase in 2010 - 2011, the pace of world economic growth are lower than those recorded in 2006-2008. Inflation in the group of leading countries supplying goods to Russia in 2010-2011 will continue to fall. " This prediction of Financial Institutions of the Kremlin, that the decrease in production of goods and services in Russia, according to the document submitted by the Central Bank will come precisely from the contraction of consumer demand for the main importing countries of Russian goods, the subsequent reduction of the increase in consumer prices for the main exporters of goods to Russia, from lower commodity prices, influenced by current trends in the global economy.
[2] Russian Central Bank did not bat an eye banks in granting a credit line of about 387.727 billion rubles up to a maximum of 700 billion, according to initial estimates of credit without collateral. Of this "discovery" have benefited from more than 809 Russian banks, which on Monday were denied access to loans without collateral for more than 383 billion rubles (almost € 11 billion), as stated by the Russian Vice Premier Igor Chouvalov stating that it is expected that in future a greater number of banks asking to have access to state credits. " The State shall protect Russia against the impact of the global financial crisis ," said the President of the Duma Boris Gryzlov at a special session on the stability economy in Russia, which will have its second reading the amendments to the 2008 budget, which include in particular the release of 75 billion rubles (€ 2 billion) by the Central Bank to support the Russian financial system, and 60 billion rubles (1.7 billion euro) budget for the mortgages, while 200 billion rubles (5.7 billion euro) will be assigned to the Agency as an insurer of bank deposits to restore the banking system . The bill also authorizes the government to use 175 billion rubles (5 billion euro), provided in the draft budget for 2009 to support the financial market and the Russian economy.
[3] injecting money into private banks, the Kremlin may increase its influence within large enterprises and strategic sectors of the nation. In fact, according to experts, the Russian industrial elite - made up of the old oligarchies withdrew from public life - is now in need of cash to repay their loans and this could lead many of them to divest part of its wealth. It is possible that the crisis decree, therefore, the next strengthening the role of the state, which could come into possession of those natural and economic resources remained in the hands of the old centers of power. For this reason, it could be for Russia to set up a completely different situation compared to Western countries in crisis, having an internal structure that tends to centralize control of assets in state hands, so that policy and economic interests tend to coincide. It could be to create a new "redistribution" of wealth to the State, which has long been lobbying for the flake system of the oligarchs in contrast with the policy of Putin, affecting in turn part of their assets and driven by scandals sudden raids the financial police. The "Mother Russia" and now acts as a strong multinational economic reasons, playing on the handling of events and various parties from time to time appear on the scene. Those oligarchs who, until recently, served the interests of the Kremlin in Russia to rebuild its former splendor, now will be further exploited to impose a new order of procedure.
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